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# A G3 Storm Has Already Hit: How to Use FT8 and WSPR to Measure the October 11 HF Recovery

> NOAA recorded G3 geomagnetic activity on October 10 while CME effects continue into October 11–12. Here is a controlled way to use FT8, WSPR and ordinary band checks to separate ionospheric change from station problems.

The useful news for HF operators is not that a geomagnetic storm has a dramatic label. It is that the disturbance gives us a rare chance to compare the same station, the same bands and the same software across a clearly marked change in the space-weather environment. If you record those comparisons, the event becomes a propagation experiment rather than another afternoon of wondering whether the antenna has failed.

 ![Amateur radio station monitoring FT8 and WSPR propagation during a geomagnetic storm](https://publicasta.com/storage/projects/40/pages/859/2026/10/04238bc4-c3a3-4428-8400-182c0d185b5e.webp)

 As of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecast issued on October 11, 2026, the Earth had already experienced a stronger disturbance than the original watch suggested. NOAA reported a maximum three-hour planetary Kp of 7, corresponding to G3, during the preceding 24 hours. The current three-day outlook called for G1 to G2 conditions on October 11 and 12, with the strongest expected three-hour Kp listed as 5.67. That is a forecast, not a promise: the timing and depth of the effect depend on the solar-wind magnetic field, especially the duration of southward Bz, as well as on which CME structures actually pass the Earth.

 The operator’s job is therefore not to predict one exact signal level. It is to make observations that can survive changing conditions. FT8 and WSPR are helpful because they create time-stamped, machine-readable evidence, but they are not magic propagation meters. A missing spot can mean a weak path, a receiver or internet problem, a crowded sub-band, a decoder setting, or an operator who stopped transmitting. A short test plan that controls those variables will tell you far more than a single waterfall screenshot.

 ## What changed in the forecast

 NOAA’s first October 11 watch covered two CMEs launched on October 7 and 8. The faster October 8 CME was expected to catch the slower October 7 CME on the way to Earth. By October 10, the event had moved from a forecast discussion to an observed disturbance. NOAA reported a CME arrival beginning around 1434 UTC and a sudden impulse of 56 nT at the Niemegk magnetometer station at 1516 UTC. Later that day, SWPC reported G3 geomagnetic storm levels beginning at 1758 UTC.

 The next-day forecast retained a more moderate expectation for October 11–13, but it also described continued influence from several CMEs and possible high-speed-stream effects from a coronal hole. In the same forecast cycle, NOAA recorded an M6.4 flare from active region 4549 peaking at 1510 UTC on October 10, associated with a Type II radio sweep and a new CME that initially looked like a near miss. The forecast discussion said later analysis could not rule out a grazing interaction on October 12. These details matter because a geomagnetic storm and a solar radio blackout are related parts of space weather, but they are not the same event.

 A G-scale geomagnetic storm describes disturbance in the near-Earth magnetic environment. An R-scale radio blackout is driven mainly by enhanced X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet radiation from a flare and tends to affect the sunlit side quickly. NOAA classifies the October 10 flare as R2, and its October 11–13 outlook gave a 65 percent chance of R1–R2 radio blackouts on October 11 and 12, with a 15 percent chance of R3 or greater. Treat those percentages as planning information, not as a guarantee that your local receiver will go quiet at a particular minute.

 For an amateur station, the practical consequence is that several mechanisms can overlap: a flare can increase lower-ionosphere absorption on the sunlit side; a CME-driven storm can change ionospheric density and propagation geometry later; and the ordinary day-night cycle continues underneath both. You need UTC timestamps and band-by-band notes if you want to tell those effects apart.

 ## The reader problem: “Is the band dead, or is my station broken?”

 The fastest way to misread a storm is to make a single observation and turn it into a diagnosis. “I heard nothing on 20 meters” is not enough. It does not say whether the band was empty, whether the path was unfavorable, whether the other station was transmitting, or whether the local noise floor rose. “FT8 decodes dropped” is better, but still incomplete unless you know how many cycles were actually monitored and whether the software was configured consistently.

 A useful storm log answers five questions for every observation:

 - What was the exact UTC time and date?
- Which band, frequency segment and mode were used?
- Was the station receiving, transmitting, or doing both?
- What changed compared with a quiet baseline from the same station?
- Did another band or an independent receiver show the same change?

 The comparison station does not have to be a laboratory. Your own 40-meter and 20-meter observations can provide a first control, provided the antenna, feed line, power, software and operating location remain unchanged. Public WSPR and PSK Reporter data can add another layer, but use them as corroboration rather than as proof of a local fault.

 ## Build a baseline before changing anything

 If you have not started a log yet, begin with a short baseline as soon as the station is stable. Do not retune the antenna, install a new plugin, change audio levels and then call the result a storm measurement. Record the settings you intend to keep.

 For FT8, note the WSJT-X or JTDX version, the radio dial frequency, transmit audio frequency policy, time synchronization method, receiver bandwidth and whether split operation is enabled. A one-second clock error can reduce decoding even when the path is good, so record the clock status before blaming propagation. Confirm that the computer’s time source is working and that the radio is not drifting significantly with temperature.

 For WSPR, record the band, transmit power, antenna, scheduled transmit window and whether the station is transmitting on the normal WSPR frequency for your region. Do not increase power during the experiment. The purpose is to observe the path, not to create a stronger signal that hides a change in reception. WSPR is a weak-signal beacon mode; it is not a substitute for a legal power measurement or for checking that your transmitter is operating correctly.

 A minimal baseline table can look like this:

 ```text
UTC start–end | Band | Mode | Rx/Tx | Power | Antenna | Decodes/spots | Noise | Notes
18:00–18:30  | 20 m  | FT8  | Rx    | —     | dipole  | 42            | S4    | normal clock
18:30–19:00  | 40 m  | FT8  | Rx    | —     | dipole  | 67            | S5    | local evening
19:00–19:10  | 20 m  | WSPR  | Tx/Rx | 5 W   | dipole | 11 spots       | S4    | no changes
```

 The exact count is less important than consistency. A 30-minute sample is more useful than one impressive decode because it shows whether the change persisted across several receive cycles. If you can collect a baseline on two or three bands, do so. The most useful pattern is not “a band worked” but “20 meters retained regional spots while 10 meters lost distant spots and 40 meters gained nighttime paths.”

 ## Use FT8 as a repeatable probe, not a scoreboard

 FT8 is well suited to the event because it runs in fixed 15-second transmit and receive periods, provides signal reports in decibels, and generates timestamps. It also has limitations that become more important during a storm. A crowded frequency, a strong local signal, an incorrect dial offset, or a receiver overload can change the decode count without any change in the ionosphere.

 Keep the receive chain unchanged for each comparison block. If the station is normally automated, let it run rather than repeatedly clicking stations by hand. If you are operating manually, write down whether each report came from a CQ, a response, or a completed exchange. A high number of decodes from one nearby source is not equivalent to broad path availability.

 For a simple test, monitor 20, 17, 15 and 10 meters in separate 20- or 30-minute blocks, then repeat 40 and 80 meters later in the local evening. The exact order can vary with your location, but keep the order visible in the log. Do not infer that 10 meters is worse than 20 meters unless both were observed during reasonably comparable solar illumination and activity. Band changes are not a controlled experiment if they are also changes in local time, antenna orientation, or receiver bandwidth.

 Track more than the number of decodes. Useful fields include the median signal report, the number of unique call signs, the number of grid squares, the strongest and weakest report, and the number of completed exchanges. If your logging software can export ADIF or CSV, preserve the raw data before filtering it. A later review may reveal that the median stayed stable while the number of distant grids collapsed, which is a different result from a total fadeout.

 Be especially cautious with automated reporting. A spotting network can make an inactive band look busy, and an internet outage can make an active station look silent. If your own receiver continues to decode local signals but the online map stops updating, check the network path before assigning the problem to the storm. Conversely, a healthy network does not prove that the RF path is healthy.

 ## Add WSPR when you want a slower comparison

 WSPR gives you a different kind of evidence. Its transmissions are longer and its reports are usually sparse compared with FT8, but a consistent low-power beacon can provide a useful before-and-after view across many receiving stations. The best question is not “How many WSPR spots did I get?” It is “Did the distribution of receiving stations, signal reports and path lengths change while my transmitter and antenna stayed fixed?”

 If you use WSPR, choose a fixed power and leave it alone. Make sure the software does not schedule more transmit time than your station, license conditions, equipment cooling and local band plan allow. Confirm the correct frequency and mode for your jurisdiction, and never use a weak-signal test as a reason to transmit outside an authorized allocation. Where local rules limit unattended operation or require additional control, follow those rules.

 A storm can reduce the number of long paths while leaving short paths intact. It can also produce temporary enhancements on some high-latitude or auroral paths that do not represent normal worldwide propagation. Sort the spots by distance, azimuth and receiving grid instead of looking only at the total. If the same nearby receivers continue to report you but distant receivers disappear, that is a meaningful change in path distribution. It is not necessarily a transmitter fault.

 The reverse test is valuable too. If your station hears a wide range of WSPR transmitters but your own transmissions are absent from every reporting station, inspect the transmitter, feed line, antenna switch and power setting before concluding that the ionosphere is responsible. A purely receive-based test cannot identify a transmit-side failure.

 ## Separate the flare phase from the geomagnetic phase

 The October event is a good reminder to divide the log into phases. During or shortly after a significant flare, the sunlit side may experience rapid HF absorption. That kind of change can appear quickly and may be strongest on paths whose ionospheric reflection points are illuminated. A geomagnetic response after CME arrival is slower and more variable. It can alter usable frequencies, absorption, irregularities and the stability of paths over hours.

 Do not force both observations into one story. A temporary drop in daytime 20-meter reports near the flare peak is not the same evidence as a broad decline in high-latitude paths several hours after the geomagnetic disturbance. Use the official event times as markers in your spreadsheet, then compare the radio data in windows before and after them.

 A practical timeline for October 11 is:

 - Mark the 10 October 1510 UTC M6.4 flare and the reported 10 October 1434 UTC CME arrival as historical reference points.
- Mark the period of observed G3 conditions reported by SWPC, beginning around 1758 UTC on October 10.
- On October 11, record your own start and end times rather than assuming the forecast peak will match local radio conditions.
- Continue the same checks into October 12, when NOAA’s forecast still allowed for additional CME and high-speed-stream influence.
- Keep a quiet-period comparison for at least one or two days after the disturbance, because recovery can be as informative as the initial drop.

 The date labels are not a substitute for data. NOAA revises forecasts as solar-wind measurements arrive, so use the latest official alert and forecast at the time of operation. A later update can change the expected Kp range without invalidating what your station actually recorded.

 ## What to expect on the bands

 There is no universal “G3 means use band X” rule. The result depends on latitude, local time, path geometry, antenna efficiency, noise and the magnetic-field orientation. Still, the current background forecast gives useful operating priorities.

 The RSGB propagation report published for October 11 described 21 MHz as performing reasonably well, with 24 MHz sometimes available, while 80 meters had been useful during recent UK contests. It also noted a solar-flux increase from 92 to 113 on October 7 and a forecast range of roughly 90 to 105 for the following week. Those figures point to a mixed autumn HF environment rather than a uniformly open or closed set of bands.

 Treat 20 meters as a reference band, not as a guaranteed winner. It often provides a useful compromise between daytime and nighttime coverage, but a disturbed ionosphere can make its behavior change quickly. Use 40 and 80 meters for lower-frequency comparisons when local noise permits. Their longer wavelengths may remain useful for regional and nighttime paths even when higher bands lose distant contacts, but absorption and interference can still dominate the result.

 Check 17 and 15 meters for the middle ground. They may retain openings that 10 meters loses, especially when solar illumination and geometry support them. Check 10 meters when the band is expected to be open, but record the time and direction. A single quiet scan of 10 meters at night does not demonstrate storm damage; it may simply reflect the normal daily cycle.

 For 6 meters and higher, do not apply HF expectations mechanically. The mechanisms and path opportunities are different, and a local absence of activity says very little unless there is a known beacon, a coordinated monitoring group or a predictable opening to compare. The same disciplined logging principle still applies: fixed time, fixed equipment, known reference signals and repeat observations.

 ## A compact operating plan for October 11–12

 If you have only an hour, use a rotating receive schedule. Spend 15 minutes each on 20, 17, 15 and 10 meters, then repeat the most interesting pair at the same UTC times later. On each band, write down the number of decodes, the approximate median report, the loudest consistent signals, the grid or region distribution and the noise level. Save a screenshot only as an illustration; retain the underlying log as the evidence.

 If you have several hours, add a second block for 40 and 80 meters and run a fixed WSPR schedule if appropriate for your station. Avoid making equipment changes during the observation window. If you must change something, mark the exact time and start a new comparison block.

 For an operator who prefers voice or CW, the same method works with known beacons, scheduled nets and repeatable skeds. Record whether the signal was readable, the approximate S-meter behavior, fading rate, audio quality and whether the other operator reported the same change. Do not treat an S-meter reading as an absolute field-strength measurement; its calibration varies widely. It is useful as a within-station comparison only.

 If you operate near a contest or a busy FT8 segment, the activity itself can be a confounding factor. Record whether the band was crowded and, if possible, make the comparison on a quieter but authorized portion of the mode’s usual operating segment. Maintain normal band-plan and licensing compliance. Space weather is never a reason to transmit outside your privileges or to ignore interference reports.

 ## How to tell propagation damage from station trouble

 A propagation effect normally appears in a pattern. Several independent stations become harder to hear, paths in a particular direction change, or multiple bands show a time-correlated shift. A station fault often appears as a local inconsistency: the noise floor changes after a cable is moved, only transmit reports disappear, only one antenna port is affected, or a second receiver hears signals that the primary receiver does not.

 Use these checks in order:

 1. Verify time synchronization, radio frequency, mode, audio routing and receiver gain.
2. Listen for a known local or regional signal that should be present on the same antenna.
3. Compare a second band without touching the feed line or antenna switch.
4. If possible, compare a separate receiver or WebSDR, while remembering that remote receivers have their own local conditions.
5. Inspect the station’s power, SWR indication, connectors and feed line only when it is safe to do so, and never climb, handle outdoor conductors or work near an antenna during hazardous weather.
6. Compare your data with public reports from stations in different locations, not with one isolated screenshot.

 A storm-related reduction in reports across several remote receivers is plausible. A sudden total loss of your own transmission reports with unchanged receive performance deserves an equipment check. A high SWR alarm, hot connector or intermittent relay is not a propagation phenomenon. Stop transmitting if equipment appears unsafe or overheated.

 ## Read the result without overclaiming

 At the end of the event, write a conclusion that matches the quality of the evidence. “Between 1800 and 2100 UTC, my 20-meter FT8 median report fell by 4 dB while the number of unique grids fell by half; 40 meters remained stable; the receiver and clock settings were unchanged” is a defensible station note. “The CME killed 20 meters” is not.

 Also record what you cannot determine. Your station may show a regional effect rather than a global one. The event may coincide with a contest, a local noise source, a changing antenna environment or a software update. Public reporting networks are valuable but incomplete, and they favor operators who are active, connected and configured to report.

 The most useful outcome may be a revised station baseline. You might learn that your 20-meter antenna remains usable through moderate disturbance but loses low-angle paths, that 40 meters becomes the more reliable evening band, or that the station’s clock drift limits FT8 performance before the ionosphere does. Those findings remain useful after the October event and are more actionable than a generic “conditions were poor” note.

 ## The practical takeaway

 NOAA’s October 11 forecast describes a continuing, changing disturbance: G3 conditions were already observed on October 10, while G1–G2 activity remained possible on October 11–12 and additional effects could follow. The correct response is not to abandon the higher bands or to make emergency antenna adjustments based on one quiet period. Keep the station stable, log UTC times, compare multiple bands, preserve FT8 and WSPR data, and separate receive evidence from transmit evidence.

 Use the event to answer a narrow question about your own station: which paths weaken first, which bands remain useful, and how long does recovery take after the official disturbance marker? That is a question your own logs can answer. The forecast supplies context; disciplined observations supply the part that belongs to the operator.

 This article uses the NOAA and RSGB information available on October 11, 2026. Space-weather alerts and operating conditions can change during the day. Check current SWPC products before operating, and apply the frequency, power, unattended-operation and RF-exposure rules that apply in your jurisdiction.